GAME THEORY AND THE CUBA QUESTION

A REVIEW of “Rock, Paper, Scissors” in this week’s Newsweek (SECTION: PERISCOPE; PAGE TURNER; Pg. 13 Vol. 152 No. 22 BYLINE: Jeneen Interlandi) brilliantly summarizes what the book is about. The author calls it The Science of Working Together, which is a heading that I wish I had thought of. “The trick” she says, in summarizing my conclusions “is to establish an agreement where everyone's self-interest is best served by cooperating.”

ONE STORY from today’s news that illustrates the point concerns an interview with Cuban President Raul Castro conducted by US actor Sean Penn for The Nation. Castro suggests in this interview that that US oil companies could be invited to explore for petroleum reserves in offshore projects in return for the trade embargo being lifted. This is a perfect example of the game theory strategy highlighted in Interlandi’s review.

WILL OBAMA follow the strategy? He has already promised some positive, humanitarian action with regard to Cuba. According to a Reuter’s report by reporter Patrick Markey “Mr Obama has said he will reverse the Bush administration's policies that restricted Cuban Americans visiting Cuba and sending cash to their families there.”

ACCORDING TO THE REUTERS REPORT, Obama is willing to talk to Castro, but would keep the 46-year-old trade embargo as leverage to influence democratic changes in the one-party state. Castro has his own lever, though, in the promise of oil exploration rights. If the two levers combine forces to produce cooperation, then game theory will have done its job.

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